Business Roundtable Releases 2nd Quarter 2009 CEO Economic Outlook Survey

The chief executives of Vermont’s leading businesses seem cautious over capital expenditure and employment levels for the summer and fall when compared against expected increases in their sales volumes for that same timeframe. In general, however, the attitude of the business community appears to have stabilized from the last quarter.  The mood was assessed at the end of the second quarter and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chair Bill Stritzler and President Lisa Ventriss.

“Interestingly, in all three areas of sales, capital expenditures, and employment levels, our members’ responses appear to be slowing moving in a more positive direction, which suggests that employers may be starting to feel better about their future prospects”, said Ventriss. Chair Stritzler, who is managing director of the Jeffersonville-based Smugglers’ Notch Resort, says “The results of the CEO survey echo similar results of the National Business Roundtable. Though economic conditions are still difficult, conditions appear to be improving among our members and we’re finding fewer negative outlooks.”

The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers for 100 of the state’s top employers.  All sectors of Vermont’s economy and all geographic regions are represented.  The response rate for this quarter was 47 percent.  Historically, rates have varied from 40 to 73 percent.

1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?

Sales

INCREASE

NO CHANGE

DECREASE

Q1 2004

83%

13%

4%

Q2 2004

80%

15%

4%

Q3 2004

71%

25%

4%

Q4 2004

77%

22%

1%

Q1 2005

78%

19%

3%

Q2 2005

75%

23%

2%

Q3 2005

74%

24%

2%

Q4 2005

72%

24%

4%

Q1 2006

78%

20%

2%

Q2 2006

78%

22%

0%

Q3 2006

69%

25%

6%

Q4 2006

73%

23%

4%

Q3 2008

51%

35%

14%

Q4 2008

27%

46%

27%

Q1 2009

33%

30%

37%

Q2 2009

41%

31%

28%

Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.

2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?

Capital

INCREASE

NO CHANGE

DECREASE

Q1 2004

62%

30%

8%

Q2 2004

43%

41%

15%

Q3 2004

51%

42%

7%

Q4 2004

45%

46%

9%

Q1 2005

55%

37%

8%

Q2 2005

49%

43%

8%

Q3 2005

57%

38%

5%

Q4 2005

50%

35%

15%

Q1 2006

45%

45%

10%

Q2 2006

53%

40%

7%

Q3 2006

40%

50%

10%

Q4 2006

56%

39%

5%

Q3 2008

38%

42%

20%

Q4 2008

17 %

43%

40%

Q1 2009

12%

38%

50%

Q2 2009

17%

51%

32%

Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.

3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?

Employment

INCREASE

NO CHANGE

DECREASE

Q1 2004

57%

38%

4%

Q2 2004

50%

48%

2%

Q3 2004

59%

37%

4%

Q4 2004

58%

39%

3%

Q1 2005

55%

38%

7%

Q2 2005

49%

42%

9%

Q3 2005

49%

44%

7%

Q4 2005

60%

35%

5%

Q1 2006

54%

39%

7%

Q2 2006

50%

45%

5%

Q3 2006

43%

49%

7%

Q4 2006

53%

41%

5%

Q3 2008

40%

42%

18%

Q4 2008

25%

35%

40%

Q1 2009

23%

37%

40%

Q2 2009

21%

50%

29%

Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.