Business Roundtable Releases Fourth Quarter 2008 CEO Economic Outlook Survey

The chief executives of Vermont’s leading businesses are less optimistic about sales prospects, capital outlays, and employment levels for the winter and spring, compared to third quarter forecasts. The mood of the statewide business community was assessed in the middle of the fourth quarter and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chairman Tim Volk and President Lisa Ventriss.“Not surprisingly, given the rapid changes in the international financial markets, the economic expectations within our membership have deteriorated since our last survey in September”, Ventriss said. “Vermont’s economy is intricately linked to the global economy and it shows in the survey findings.”

The Roundtable’s fourth quarter ’08 membership survey showed greater pessimism today against CEO expectations in the previous quarter. …

Chairman Volk, who is president of the Burlington-based marketing firm Kelliher Samets Volk, says the results of the CEO survey reflect the realities of the marketplace.

The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers for 110 of the state’s top employers. Vermont’s construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, transportation, utilities, professional/business services and non-profit industries are represented. The response rate for this quarter was 59 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 40 to 73 percent.

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1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?

Sales INCREASE NO CHANGE DECREASE
Q1 2004 83% 13% 4%
Q2 2004 80% 15% 4%
Q3 2004 71% 25% 4%
Q4 2004 77% 22% 1%
Q1 2005 78% 19% 3%
Q2 2005 75% 23% 2%
Q3 2005 74% 24% 2%
Q4 2005 72% 24% 4%
Q1 2006 78% 20% 2%
Q2 2006 78% 22% 0%
Q3 2006 69% 25% 6%
Q4 2006 73% 23% 4%
Q3 2008 51% 35% 14%
Q4 2008 27% 46% 27%

Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.

2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?

Capital INCREASE NO CHANGE DECREASE
Q1 2004 62% 30% 8%
Q2 2004 43% 41% 15%
Q3 2004 51% 42% 7%
Q4 2004 45% 46% 9%
Q1 2005 55% 37% 8%
Q2 2005 49% 43% 8%
Q3 2005 57% 38% 5%
Q4 2005 50% 35% 15%
Q1 2006 45% 45% 10%
Q2 2006 53% 40% 7%
Q3 2006 40% 50% 10%
Q4 2006 56% 39% 5%
Q3 2008 38% 42% 20%
Q4 2008 17 % 43% 40%

Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.

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3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?

Employment INCREASE NO CHANGE DECREASE
Q1 2004 57% 38% 4%
Q2 2004 50% 48% 2%
Q3 2004 59% 37% 4%
Q4 2004 58% 39% 3%
Q1 2005 55% 38% 7%
Q2 2005 49% 42% 9%
Q3 2005 49% 44% 7%
Q4 2005 60% 35% 5%
Q1 2006 54% 39% 7%
Q2 2006 50% 45% 5%
Q3 2006 43% 49% 7%
Q4 2006 53% 41% 5%
Q3 2008 40% 42% 18%
Q4 2008 25% 35% 40%

Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.

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The Roundtable is composed of 110 CEOs of Vermont’s top private and nonprofit employers dedicated to the vision of making Vermont the best place in America to do business, be educated, and live life.