The chief executives of Vermont’s leading businesses are less optimistic about sales prospects, capital outlays, and employment levels for the winter and spring, compared to third quarter forecasts. The mood of the statewide business community was assessed in the middle of the fourth quarter and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chairman Tim Volk and President Lisa Ventriss.“Not surprisingly, given the rapid changes in the international financial markets, the economic expectations within our membership have deteriorated since our last survey in September”, Ventriss said. “Vermont’s economy is intricately linked to the global economy and it shows in the survey findings.”
The Roundtable’s fourth quarter ’08 membership survey showed greater pessimism today against CEO expectations in the previous quarter. …
Chairman Volk, who is president of the Burlington-based marketing firm Kelliher Samets Volk, says the results of the CEO survey reflect the realities of the marketplace.
The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers for 110 of the state’s top employers. Vermont’s construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, transportation, utilities, professional/business services and non-profit industries are represented. The response rate for this quarter was 59 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 40 to 73 percent.
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1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?
| Sales | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 83% | 13% | 4% |
| Q2 2004 | 80% | 15% | 4% |
| Q3 2004 | 71% | 25% | 4% |
| Q4 2004 | 77% | 22% | 1% |
| Q1 2005 | 78% | 19% | 3% |
| Q2 2005 | 75% | 23% | 2% |
| Q3 2005 | 74% | 24% | 2% |
| Q4 2005 | 72% | 24% | 4% |
| Q1 2006 | 78% | 20% | 2% |
| Q2 2006 | 78% | 22% | 0% |
| Q3 2006 | 69% | 25% | 6% |
| Q4 2006 | 73% | 23% | 4% |
| Q3 2008 | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| Q4 2008 | 27% | 46% | 27% |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?
| Capital | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 62% | 30% | 8% |
| Q2 2004 | 43% | 41% | 15% |
| Q3 2004 | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Q4 2004 | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Q1 2005 | 55% | 37% | 8% |
| Q2 2005 | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Q3 2005 | 57% | 38% | 5% |
| Q4 2005 | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| Q1 2006 | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Q2 2006 | 53% | 40% | 7% |
| Q3 2006 | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Q4 2006 | 56% | 39% | 5% |
| Q3 2008 | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Q4 2008 | 17 % | 43% | 40% |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
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3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?
| Employment | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 57% | 38% | 4% |
| Q2 2004 | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Q3 2004 | 59% | 37% | 4% |
| Q4 2004 | 58% | 39% | 3% |
| Q1 2005 | 55% | 38% | 7% |
| Q2 2005 | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| Q3 2005 | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Q4 2005 | 60% | 35% | 5% |
| Q1 2006 | 54% | 39% | 7% |
| Q2 2006 | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Q3 2006 | 43% | 49% | 7% |
| Q4 2006 | 53% | 41% | 5% |
| Q3 2008 | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Q4 2008 | 25% | 35% | 40% |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
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The Roundtable is composed of 110 CEOs of Vermont’s top private and nonprofit employers dedicated to the vision of making Vermont the best place in America to do business, be educated, and live life.