Forecast is Steady through First Quarter of 2012
(South Burlington, Vt.) The chief executives of Vermont’s leading businesses appear poised to maintain their growth plans through early 2012, echoing results from the previous survey. The survey was completed between September 8 and September 22 and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chair Steve Voigt, CEO, King Arthur Flour and President Lisa Ventriss.
According to Roundtable President, Lisa Ventriss, “When viewed in the aggregate, these results point to an economy that is expecting to grow, albeit very slowly. The effects of Tropical Storm Irene and the potential threat of a “double dip” recession are, naturally, causes of great concern to our members. The good news is that 95 percent of CEO respondents expect to see their sales volumes increase or stay the same in the coming six months, which is consistent with the previous survey, and good news for Vermont products and services. Also encouraging news is that 90 percent of CEOs expect to maintain or grow in the size of their workforce through the fall and winter, again consistent with the previous survey results.
Chair Steve Voigt said “Roundtable members are reflecting the reality that we live in strained economic times. Companies have worked very hard to control costs and pump money back into their businesses, which is why we are now seeing almost 60 percent of members with no future changes in capital spending. Those dollars have been invested already. Now, if they plan to grow, they will do it through investing in their workforces.”
The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers of 118 of the state’s top employers with an aggregate economic impact of $292 billion, with over $1.8 billion in corporate philanthropy, and employing more than 10 percent of the state’s workforce. The members represent Vermont’s agriculture, construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, utilities, professional/business services, wholesale trade, and non-profit industries.
The response rate for this quarter was 52 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 35 to 73 percent.
1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?
| Sales | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 83% | 13% | 4% |
| Q2 2004 | 80% | 15% | 4% |
| Q3 2004 | 71% | 25% | 4% |
| Q4 2004 | 77% | 22% | 1% |
| Q1 2005 | 78% | 19% | 3% |
| Q2 2005 | 75% | 23% | 2% |
| Q3 2005 | 74% | 24% | 2% |
| Q4 2005 | 72% | 24% | 4% |
| Q1 2006 | 78% | 20% | 2% |
| Q2 2006 | 78% | 22% | 0% |
| Q3 2006 | 69% | 25% | 6% |
| Q4 2006 | 73% | 23% | 4% |
| Q3 2008 | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| Q4 2008 | 27% | 46% | 27% |
| Q1 2009 | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Q2 2009 | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Q3 2009 | 34% | 49% | 17% |
| Q1 2010 | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Q2 2010 | 69% | 24% | 7% |
| Q3 2010 | 59% | 35% | 6% |
| Q4 2010 | 71% | 23% | 6% |
| Q1 2011 | 73% | 19% | 8% |
| Q2 2011 | 61% | 34% | 5% |
| Q3 2011 | 62% | 33 | 5 |
| Point change from Q2 to Q3 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?
| Capital | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 62% | 30% | 8% |
| Q2 2004 | 43% | 41% | 15% |
| Q3 2004 | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Q4 2004 | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Q1 2005 | 55% | 37% | 8% |
| Q2 2005 | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Q3 2005 | 57% | 38% | 5% |
| Q4 2005 | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| Q1 2006 | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Q2 2006 | 53% | 40% | 7% |
| Q3 2006 | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Q4 2006 | 56% | 39% | 5% |
| Q3 2008 | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Q4 2008 | 17 % | 43% | 40% |
| Q1 2009 | 12% | 38% | 50% |
| Q2 2009 | 17% | 51% | 32% |
| Q3 2009 | 31% | 46% | 23% |
| Q1 2010 | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| Q2 2010 | 51% | 38% | 11% |
| Q3 2010 | 37% | 48% | 15% |
| Q4 2010 | 49% | 34% | 17% |
| Q1 2011 | 47% | 38% | 15% |
| Q2 2011 | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Q3 2011 | 39% | 58 | 3% |
| Point change from Q2 to Q3 | -7 | 14 | -7 |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?
| Employment | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 57% | 38% | 4% |
| Q2 2004 | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Q3 2004 | 59% | 37% | 4% |
| Q4 2004 | 58% | 39% | 3% |
| Q1 2005 | 55% | 38% | 7% |
| Q2 2005 | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| Q3 2005 | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Q4 2005 | 60% | 35% | 5% |
| Q1 2006 | 54% | 39% | 7% |
| Q2 2006 | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Q3 2006 | 43% | 49% | 7% |
| Q4 2006 | 53% | 41% | 5% |
| Q3 2008 | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Q4 2008 | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Q1 2009 | 23% | 37% | 40% |
| Q2 2009 | 21% | 50% | 29% |
| Q3 2009 | 34% | 46% | 20% |
| Q1 2010 | 40% | 52% | 8% |
| Q2 2010 | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Q3 2010 | 35% | 52% | 13% |
| Q4 2010 | 51% | 38% | 11% |
| Q1 2011 | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Q2 2011 | 36% | 53% | 11% |
| Q3 2011 | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Point change from Q2 toQ3 | 4 | -3 | -1 |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
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