The chief executives of Vermont’s leading businesses appear increasingly optimistic toward all three of the survey’s metrics: sales prospects, capital expenditures and employment levels for the summer months and fall months, when compared against first quarter 2010 forecasts. The mood was assessed near the end of the second quarter and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chair Bill Stritzler and President Lisa Ventriss.
According to Roundtable President, Lisa Ventriss, “Overall, these data represent the third straight reporting period in which indicators have been trending positively for sales, capital expenditures, and employment levels. In particular, a strengthening in the sales forecasts from our CEO members; now more than two-thirds (69 percent) of respondents expect their sales to increase in the next six months, compared to 63 percent from the first quarter. That bodes well for Vermont products and services.” Ventriss said.
Chair Stritzler, who is managing director of the Jeffersonville-based Smugglers’ Notch Resort, says the results of the CEO survey reflect encouraging attitudes of the marketplace. “The anecdotal information from Roundtable members over the past several months is now being validated by our survey results and that is continued good news for those seeking employment. Forty-six percent of respondents expect to increase their workforce in the next six months, compared to 40% in the previous survey.”
Capital spending was the one area in which the rate of change from the previous quarter saw the least change. A majority of CEOs continued to forecast an increase in capital expenditures (51% v. 50% in 1Q), and roughly 10% expect to decrease spending in the next six months, up slightly from the previous quarter (11% v. 8% in 1Q).
“In sum, we are encouraged by these results and believe that the economy continues to strengthen as we move into the busy summer and fall seasons”, said Stritzler.
The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers for 110 of the state’s top employers. Vermont’s agriculture, construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, utilities, professional/business services, wholesale trade, and non-profit industries are represented. The response rate for this quarter was 67 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 35 to 73 percent.
1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?
| Sales | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 83% | 13% | 4% |
| Q2 2004 | 80% | 15% | 4% |
| Q3 2004 | 71% | 25% | 4% |
| Q4 2004 | 77% | 22% | 1% |
| Q1 2005 | 78% | 19% | 3% |
| Q2 2005 | 75% | 23% | 2% |
| Q3 2005 | 74% | 24% | 2% |
| Q4 2005 | 72% | 24% | 4% |
| Q1 2006 | 78% | 20% | 2% |
| Q2 2006 | 78% | 22% | 0% |
| Q3 2006 | 69% | 25% | 6% |
| Q4 2006 | 73% | 23% | 4% |
| Q3 2008 | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| Q4 2008 | 27% | 46% | 27% |
| Q1 2009 | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Q2 2009 | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Q3 2009 | 34% | 49% | 17% |
| Q1 2010 | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Q2 2010 | 69% | 24% | 7% |
| % change from Q1/10 to Q2/10 | 6% | 5% | -11% |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?
| Capital | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 62% | 30% | 8% |
| Q2 2004 | 43% | 41% | 15% |
| Q3 2004 | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Q4 2004 | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Q1 2005 | 55% | 37% | 8% |
| Q2 2005 | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Q3 2005 | 57% | 38% | 5% |
| Q4 2005 | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| Q1 2006 | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Q2 2006 | 53% | 40% | 7% |
| Q3 2006 | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Q4 2006 | 56% | 39% | 5% |
| Q3 2008 | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Q4 2008 | 17 % | 43% | 40% |
| Q1 2009 | 12% | 38% | 50% |
| Q2 2009 | 17% | 51% | 32% |
| Q3 2009 | 31% | 46% | 23% |
| Q1 2010 | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| Q2 2010 | 51% | 38% | 11% |
| % Change from Q1/10 to Q2/10 | 1% | -4% | 3% |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?
| Employment | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 57% | 38% | 4% |
| Q2 2004 | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Q3 2004 | 59% | 37% | 4% |
| Q4 2004 | 58% | 39% | 3% |
| Q1 2005 | 55% | 38% | 7% |
| Q2 2005 | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| Q3 2005 | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Q4 2005 | 60% | 35% | 5% |
| Q1 2006 | 54% | 39% | 7% |
| Q2 2006 | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Q3 2006 | 43% | 49% | 7% |
| Q4 2006 | 53% | 41% | 5% |
| Q3 2008 | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Q4 2008 | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Q1 2009 | 23% | 37% | 40% |
| Q2 2009 | 21% | 50% | 29% |
| Q3 2009 | 34% | 46% | 20% |
| Q1 2010 | 40% | 52% | 8% |
| Q2 2010 | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| % Change from Q1/10 to Q2/10 | 6% | -7% | 1% |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
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