(South Burlington, Vt.) The chief executives of Vermont’s leading businesses appear increasingly poised for improvement in all three of the survey’s metrics: sales prospects, capital expenditures and employment levels for the winter and spring months of 2011, when compared against the previous survey period. The mood was assessed near the end of calendar year 2010 and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chair Bill Stritzler and President Lisa Ventriss.
According to Roundtable President, Lisa Ventriss, “Overall, these data present an important upswing in economic outlooks among the state’s leading CEOs and we’d have to go back to our pre-recessionary surveys of 2006 to find similar percentages for growth expectations. Specifically, our members’ strong sales forecasts (71 percent of respondents expect an increase compared to 59 percent in the previous survey); capital expenditures (49 percent compared to 37 percent, previously) and employment (51 percent compared to 35 percent, previously) tell a positive story,” Ventriss said.
Chair Stritzler, the Managing Director of the Jeffersonville-based Smugglers’ Notch Resort, says the results of the CEO survey reflect encouraging attitudes across all sectors of the marketplace. “These data tell us that business leaders are prepared to again invest not only in physical infrastructure but, more importantly, in their workforces. This is very good news for Vermont and Vermonters. But at the same time, we must remember that these changes are fragile; there are still areas of concern in the numbers.“
“In sum, we are encouraged by these results and believe that the economy continues to strengthen.” said Stritzler.
The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers for 120 of the state’s top employers that have an aggregate economic impact of $135 billion and employ 15 percent of the state’s workforce. Vermont’s agriculture, construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, utilities, professional/business services, wholesale trade, and non-profit industries are represented. The response rate for this quarter was 65 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 35 to 73 percent.
1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?
| Sales | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 83% | 13% | 4% |
| Q2 2004 | 80% | 15% | 4% |
| Q3 2004 | 71% | 25% | 4% |
| Q4 2004 | 77% | 22% | 1% |
| Q1 2005 | 78% | 19% | 3% |
| Q2 2005 | 75% | 23% | 2% |
| Q3 2005 | 74% | 24% | 2% |
| Q4 2005 | 72% | 24% | 4% |
| Q1 2006 | 78% | 20% | 2% |
| Q2 2006 | 78% | 22% | 0% |
| Q3 2006 | 69% | 25% | 6% |
| Q4 2006 | 73% | 23% | 4% |
| Q3 2008 | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| Q4 2008 | 27% | 46% | 27% |
| Q1 2009 | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Q2 2009 | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Q3 2009 | 34% | 49% | 17% |
| Q1 2010 | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Q2 2010 | 69% | 24% | 7% |
| Q3 2010 | 59 | 35 | 6 |
| Q4 2010 | 71 | 6 | 23 |
| % change from Q3/10 to Q4/10 | 12% | -29% | 17% |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?
| Capital | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 62% | 30% | 8% |
| Q2 2004 | 43% | 41% | 15% |
| Q3 2004 | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Q4 2004 | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Q1 2005 | 55% | 37% | 8% |
| Q2 2005 | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Q3 2005 | 57% | 38% | 5% |
| Q4 2005 | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| Q1 2006 | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Q2 2006 | 53% | 40% | 7% |
| Q3 2006 | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Q4 2006 | 56% | 39% | 5% |
| Q3 2008 | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Q4 2008 | 17 % | 43% | 40% |
| Q1 2009 | 12% | 38% | 50% |
| Q2 2009 | 17% | 51% | 32% |
| Q3 2009 | 31% | 46% | 23% |
| Q1 2010 | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| Q2 2010 | 51% | 38% | 11% |
| Q3 2010 | 37 | 48 | 15 |
| Q4 2010 | 49 | 17 | 34 |
| % Change from Q3/10 to Q4/10 | 12% | -31% | 19% |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?
| Employment | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 57% | 38% | 4% |
| Q2 2004 | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Q3 2004 | 59% | 37% | 4% |
| Q4 2004 | 58% | 39% | 3% |
| Q1 2005 | 55% | 38% | 7% |
| Q2 2005 | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| Q3 2005 | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Q4 2005 | 60% | 35% | 5% |
| Q1 2006 | 54% | 39% | 7% |
| Q2 2006 | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Q3 2006 | 43% | 49% | 7% |
| Q4 2006 | 53% | 41% | 5% |
| Q3 2008 | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Q4 2008 | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Q1 2009 | 23% | 37% | 40% |
| Q2 2009 | 21% | 50% | 29% |
| Q3 2009 | 34% | 46% | 20% |
| Q1 2010 | 40% | 52% | 8% |
| Q2 2010 | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Q3 2010 | 35 | 52 | 13 |
| Q4 2010 | 51 | 11 | 38 |
| % Change from Q3/10 to Q4/10 | 16% | -41% | 25% |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.