Business Roundtable Releases Latest CEO Economic Outlook Survey: Forecast is Slow and Steady for Remainder of 2011
(South Burlington, Vt.) The chief executives of Vermont’s leading businesses appear poised to hold steady their growth plans through the remainder of 2011, when compared against the first quarter survey period. The survey was completed between June 10 and June 24 and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chair Steve Voigt, CEO, King Arthur Flour and President Lisa Ventriss.
According to Roundtable President, Lisa Ventriss, “Overall, these data show an economy that continues to be in a holding pattern as our members wait for clarity and direction on key policy issues at both the state and federal levels. While roughly 60 percent of our members foresee increased sales projections for their companies, that number has declined slightly (61 percent compared to 73 percent in the previous quarter). An increasing number of CEOs expect there to be no change in either their capital expenditures or employment levels for the rest of 2011. Only one in ten CEOs are anticipating decreases in these key areas.”
Chair Steve Voigt said “Overall, Roundtable members are signaling that they are either growing slowly or holding steady, but it also appears that many Roundtable members ~ especially those in financial or professional services, which are dependent on business growth in other sectors ~ are reluctant to make significant investments in their company’s physical or human resources until they have a better picture of the future costs associated with those investments, namely health care and budget issues at the state and federal levels.”
The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers of 115 of the state’s top employers with an aggregate economic impact of $279 billion, with over $693 million in corporate philanthropy, and employing 10 percent of the state’s workforce. The members represent Vermont’s agriculture, construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, utilities, professional/business services, wholesale trade, and non-profit industries.
The response rate for this quarter was 53 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 35 to 73 percent.
1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?
| Sales | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 83% | 13% | 4% |
| Q2 2004 | 80% | 15% | 4% |
| Q3 2004 | 71% | 25% | 4% |
| Q4 2004 | 77% | 22% | 1% |
| Q1 2005 | 78% | 19% | 3% |
| Q2 2005 | 75% | 23% | 2% |
| Q3 2005 | 74% | 24% | 2% |
| Q4 2005 | 72% | 24% | 4% |
| Q1 2006 | 78% | 20% | 2% |
| Q2 2006 | 78% | 22% | 0% |
| Q3 2006 | 69% | 25% | 6% |
| Q4 2006 | 73% | 23% | 4% |
| Q3 2008 | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| Q4 2008 | 27% | 46% | 27% |
| Q1 2009 | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Q2 2009 | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Q3 2009 | 34% | 49% | 17% |
| Q1 2010 | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Q2 2010 | 69% | 24% | 7% |
| Q3 2010 | 59% | 35% | 6% |
| Q4 2010 | 71% | 23% | 6% |
| Q1 2011 | 73% | 19% | 8% |
| Q2 2011 | 61% | 34% | 5% |
| Point change from Q1/11 to Q2/11 | -8 | 15 | -3 |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?
| Capital | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 62% | 30% | 8% |
| Q2 2004 | 43% | 41% | 15% |
| Q3 2004 | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Q4 2004 | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Q1 2005 | 55% | 37% | 8% |
| Q2 2005 | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Q3 2005 | 57% | 38% | 5% |
| Q4 2005 | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| Q1 2006 | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Q2 2006 | 53% | 40% | 7% |
| Q3 2006 | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Q4 2006 | 56% | 39% | 5% |
| Q3 2008 | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Q4 2008 | 17 % | 43% | 40% |
| Q1 2009 | 12% | 38% | 50% |
| Q2 2009 | 17% | 51% | 32% |
| Q3 2009 | 31% | 46% | 23% |
| Q1 2010 | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| Q2 2010 | 51% | 38% | 11% |
| Q3 2010 | 37% | 48% | 15% |
| Q4 2010 | 49% | 34% | 17% |
| Q1 2011 | 47% | 38% | 15% |
| Q2 2011 | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Point change from Q1/11 to Q2/11 | -1 | 6 | -5 |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?
| Employment | INCREASE | NO CHANGE | DECREASE |
| Q1 2004 | 57% | 38% | 4% |
| Q2 2004 | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Q3 2004 | 59% | 37% | 4% |
| Q4 2004 | 58% | 39% | 3% |
| Q1 2005 | 55% | 38% | 7% |
| Q2 2005 | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| Q3 2005 | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Q4 2005 | 60% | 35% | 5% |
| Q1 2006 | 54% | 39% | 7% |
| Q2 2006 | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Q3 2006 | 43% | 49% | 7% |
| Q4 2006 | 53% | 41% | 5% |
| Q3 2008 | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Q4 2008 | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Q1 2009 | 23% | 37% | 40% |
| Q2 2009 | 21% | 50% | 29% |
| Q3 2009 | 34% | 46% | 20% |
| Q1 2010 | 40% | 52% | 8% |
| Q2 2010 | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Q3 2010 | 35% | 52% | 13% |
| Q4 2010 | 51% | 38% | 11% |
| Q1 2011 | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Q2 2011 | 36% | 53% | 11% |
| Point change from Q1/11 to
Q2/11 |
-8 | 8 | -4 |
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
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